Not just NATO

In my first two months in Estonia, I have been asked frequently about Estonia's prospects for entry into NATO and the European Union. Clearly, Estonia's entry into major western economic, political and security institutions is of major importance to both the U.S. and Estonian governments. It is my primary mission in this country to help Estonia on its way to integration with those institutions.

But, there are threats to which NATO is no answer. As I write this a 21st Century security threat is killing thousands of young Estonians. By the end of this year, as many Estonians will under the threat of death from this source as there were victims in the World Trade Center attack on September 11 in New York. If nothing is done, the number of Estonians who die from this threat will eventually be many times higher than the number who died in New York at the hands of Usama bin Laden.

The threat I am discussing is HIV/AIDS. The global AIDS epidemic has already killed 21 million people in the world; it will soon surpass the Black Death which eliminated over a third of the population of Europe in the 14th Century. Estonia now is on the verge of experiencing an outbreak of the disease of epidemic proportions. Just two years ago, there were only a dozen individuals in this country who tested positive for HIV. In 2000, several hundred individuals in Northeast Estonia tested positive for HIV. Last year, over 1400 new individuals tested positive for HIV. A third of those cases occurred here in Tallinn. Of the nearly two thousand HIV positive individuals in Estonia, the overwhelming majority of them are under the age of 35. Many here are already concerned about the decline of population in Estonia. Estonia has no young people it can afford to give to the global AIDS pandemic.

I recently visited the Estonian AIDS Center in Tallinn. I found a courageous and committed group of individuals doing battle with the epidemic. But, if things continue as they are now, they and the youth of Estonia will lose their fight against the epidemic. As has been the case in country-after-country (including my own), those who understand and battle the disease, do so alone – until the epidemic is too large to be ignored and touches a large part of the population.

Why is it that so many countries must make this same mistake? Let us speak honestly about this. The reason the disease can spread is because it is associated with behaviors disapproved of by the majority of the world's population. In many countries, the disease is spread by sexual behaviors condemned of by local custom. Many countries deny they have a problem because AIDS is seen as a disease of homosexuals. In Europe, and in the U.S., most victims acquire the disease through intravenous drug use. Thus, people can delude themselves into believing the disease cannot affect those who do not engage in such behaviors. But, AIDS never contents itself by staying in such social circles. It may get its start there, but it inevitably spreads to others. The first babies with AIDS have been born in Estonia. In some parts of the country, it is now spreading through sexual contact. It will not stay in the darker corners of society. It will try to visit us all.

Estonia's friends in the world are willing to help. The United Nations, the European Union and the United States all have made contributions to combat AIDS. The U.S. Embassy provided a modest grant on January 17 to former intravenous drug users' rehabilitation centers. But, Success against this plague only comes through the mobilization of a government and the public. Only public education and sound, well-resourced public health policies can stop AIDS here before it spreads further. There are good models in the world to follow. There are committed individuals here already on the front lines, but nothing can replace the need for a society and a government committed to public education to halt the behaviors that spread the disease.

Some in the international security field might consider attention to this topic a diversion from Estonia's top security priorities. But, every day of delay in mobilizing against AIDS gives the epidemic new strength here. The United States classifies HIV/AIDS as a global threat to international security. Fighting this threat here, involves different tools than NATO has to offer, but it is equally urgent and vital.